“Obama Widens lead in Nevada,” says the newspaper’s headline. President Obama is ostensibly leading GOP rival Mitt Romney by 4 points, according to the SurveyUSA poll commissioned by the Review-Journal. But looky here:
Democrats accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed, Republicans 33 percent and independents 23 percent.
So this is a D+10 sample.
As we noted yesterday,
[E]xit polls showed a D+8 tilt in [Nevada in ] 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak. Does anyone really believe that more Democrats will show up next week than in 2008?
And see this:
Hispanics accounted for 21 percent of those questioned, although Latinos accounted for about 15 percent of the electorate in the past two elections in Nevada.
Savvy poll-watchers are skeptical, and you should be too.
Sample used by “newspaper” has 10-pt Dem edge (it’s only 7 and GOP turnout will reduce that) and 21% Latino (way high): lvrj.com/hottopics/poli…
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 1, 2012